FTL2026 - NEW MATCH POINT CALCULATION BREAKDOWN - PART 4 - (Best of 5)

Lets continue the process of breaking down the New Match Point Calculation for the FTL2026 season, and provide a rationale for the necessary changes. Today, we'll address the changes to how the Best of 5 will be addressed.

 

In the Old Calculation, the number of points that a player could accumulate in Service, Return and KSI points was soo substantial that nextgenftl was forced to attach a 20% discount to anyone playing a Bo5, so that players involved in a Bo3 would be on a level playing field.   To make matters worse, the longer a match went on, the more and more points a player could accumulate - there was literally no maximum for the amount of points that a player could accumulate!

 

Meanwhile, in the New Calculation, Service, Return and KSI points are based on percentages and as a result, it won't matter if a player is involved in a Bo3 or a Bo5 match.  The adjustment to the Game % Bonus criteria is the only adjustment for the Bo5 matches.

 

*** For those that aren't aware the Game% category replaces the 4+ games in a set and Sets in the Old Calculation.  The Game % Bonus category helps ensure that highly competitive matches that aren't concluded in straight sets, are properly rewarded ****

 

Best of 3 format in the New Calculation

Game % Bonus

• Player wins a match and wins 16 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus. 
• Value =  4.0 - the points he received for the Game%
• Player loses the match and wins 14 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus.
• Value = Game% Bonus will be 1.0 points

Meanwhile, in a Best of 5 format in the New Calculation 

Game % Bonus

•  4 Set Match 

• Player wins a match and wins 22 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus. 
• Value =  4.0 - the points he received for the Game%
• Player loses the match and wins 18 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus.
• Value = 3.5 - the points he received for the Game%
• 5 Set Match
• Player wins a match and wins 26 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus. 
• Value =  4.0 - the points he received for the Game%
• Player loses the match and wins 24 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus.
• Value = Game% Bonus will be 1.0 points

FTL2026 - NEW MATCH POINT CALCULATION BREAKDOWN - PART 3 (KSI POINTS)

Lets continue the process of breaking down the New Match Point Calculation for the FTL2026 season, and provide a rationale for the necessary changes. Today, we'll address the KSI (Key Success Indicator) Points portion of the calculation 

OLD CALCULATION:

KSI Points had a Maximum of 13.5 points and a Minimum of 0.0 points.  The calculation was as follows:

4+ Games Won = 1 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set

Tiebreak Won = 0.5 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set

Sets Won = 1 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set

Match Won in Straight Sets = 3

Match Won while Losing 1 Set = 2

Match Won while Losing 2 Sets = 1 

NEW CALCULATION:

KSI Points will have a Maximum of 8.0 points and a Minimum of 0.0 points.  The calculation is as follows: 

Game % = 6 X (Games Won/Games Played) - maximum of 4.0 points

•  if either of the following conditions are met, 0.0 points will be awarded for Game %
• Player A Wins a Match in Straight Sets
• Player A wins less than 35% of the games played

Tiebreak Won = 0.5 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set 

Match Won in Straight Sets = 7 

Match Won while losing a Set = 3

Game % Bonus - Broken into 2 Separate Categories - Bo3 and Bo5.  For today, lets focus on the Bo3

• Player wins a match and wins 16 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus. 
• Value =  4.0 - the points he received for the Game%
• Player loses the match and wins 14 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus.
• Value = Game% Bonus will be 1.0 points

 

RATIONALE:

KSI Points are a simple way to reward a player for their success in a given match.  Sadly, in the previous method there were a couple of sizable issues that felt inappropriate

• the penalty is too severe for a player winning 3 games in a set instead of 4  - especially in a highly competitive match. 
• the entire point of a match is to win, so why is a player awarded with a different amount when they do so?  There has to be a better way to award a player with winning in less sets, no?
• far too many points are available in a Bo5  

Lets take a look at 2 specific scenarios.  

Scenario 1 - In Turin, Alcaraz beats Fritz 6-7, 7-5,6-3

 

According to the Old Calculation, 

Alcaraz would receive 7.0 points (3 X 1.0 + 0 X 0.5 + 2 X 1.0 +  2).   AND

Fritz would receive 3.5 points (2 X 1.0 + 1 X 0.5 + 1 X 1.0 + 0).

 

Meanwhile, at first glance the New Calculation looks a bit complicated, so lets have a better look

 

Alcaraz

6 X (19/34) + 0 X 0.5 + 0.0 + 3.0 + Game% Bonus. (eligible because 19games won > 16 games required)

= 3.4 + 0 + 3.0 + (4.0 - 3.4)

= 7.0

Therefore Alcaraz would receive 7.0 points for the match.  

 

Fritz 

6 X (15/34) + 1 X 0.5 + 0.0 + 0.0 + Game% Bonus. (eligible because 15games won > 14 games required)

= 2.6 + 0.5 + 0.0 + 0.0 + 1.0

= 4.1

Therefore Fritz would receive 4.1 points for the match.

 

Scenario  2 - In the WTA Finals, Anisimova beat Swiatek 6-7,6-4,6-2

 

According to the Old Calculation, 

Anisimova would receive 7.0 points (3 X 1.0 + 0 X 0.5 + 2 X 1.0 +  2)   AND

Swiatek would receive 3.5 points (2 X 1.0 + 1 X 0.5 + 1 X 1.0 + 0).

 

Meanwhile, lets look at the math for the New Calculation.

 

Anisimova

6 X (18/31) + 0 X 0.5 + 0.0 + 3.0 + Game% Bonus. (eligible because 18games won > 16 games required)

= 3.5 + 0 + 3.0 + (4.0 - 3.5)

= 7.0

Therefore Anisimova would receive 7.0 points for the match.  

 

Swiatek

6 X (13/31) + 1 X 0.5 + 0.0 + 0.0 + Game% Bonus. (ineligible because 13games won < 14 games required)

= 2.5 + 0.5 + 0.0 + 0.0 + 0.0

= 3.0

Therefore Swiatek would receive 3.0 points for the match.

FTL2026 - NEW MATCH POINT CALCULATION BREAKDOWN - PART 2 (RETURN POINTS)

Lets continue the process of breaking down the New Match Point Calculation for the FTL2026 season, and provide a rationale for the necessary changes. Today, we'll address the Return Points portion of the calculation.  

 

OLD CALCULATION: Return Points had no Maximum or Minimum.  The calculation was as follows:

First Serve Return Points = 0.2 X # of points won on first serve return 

Second Serve Return Points = 0.1 X # of points won on second serve return

Net Breaks = 0.5 X # of positive Net Breaks 

Total Return Points =  First Serve Return Points + Second Serve Return Points + Net Breaks

NEW CALCULATION:

Return Points will have a Maximum of 15.0 points and a Minimum of 0.0 points.  The calculation is as follows: 

First Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.2 X Opponents 1st Serve % X 1st Serve Return Win %)

Second Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.1 X Opponents 2nd Serve % X 2nd Serve Return Win %)

Break of Serve Points = 0.05 X Break % 

Total Return Points =  First Serve Return Points + Second Serve Return Points  + Break of Serve Points

 

RATIONALE:

The old calculation for Return Points is simple and effective, and looks correct at first and even second glance, but when you realize that its a statistic that gets bigger and bigger the longer a match goes, it loses its lustre.  A perfect example of this is that a player could break an opponent at love, and yet accumulate less points than a player that was involved in a game where they won 5 points and didn't generate a break of serve!!  Safe to say, that doesn't seem appropriate!

 

Lets talk about 2 specific scenarios. 

 

Scenario 1 - In Turin, Sinner hits 55% first serve, and wins 27% of his first serve return points (13 points), and 43% of his second serve return points (10 points).  Sinner broke Alcaraz at a 17% clip (twice)

Scenario 2 - In Turin, Alcaraz hits 68% first serve, and wins 16% of his first serve return points (7 points), and 46% of his second serve return points (16 points). Alcaraz broke Sinner at an 8% clip (once)

 

According to the Old Calculation, Sinner would get 4.1 points for that match (13 X 0.2 + 10 X 0.1 + 1 X 0.5), meanwhile Alcaraz would receive 3.0 points for that match (7 X 0.2 + 16 X 0.1 + 0 X 0.5).  Meanwhile, lets look at the math for the New Calculation.

 

Sinner

0.005 X  (0.2 X 68 X 27) + 0.005 X  (0.1 X 32 X 43) + 0.05 X (17)

=1.836 + 0.688 + 0.85

= 3.4

Therefore Sinner would receive 3.4 Total Return Points for that match

 

Alcaraz

0.005 X  (0.2 X 55 X 16) + 0.005 X  (0.1 X 45 X 46) + 0.05 X (8)

=0.88 + 1.035 + 0.4

= 2.315

Therefore Alcaraz would receive 2.315 Total Return Points for that match

FTL2026 - NEW MATCH POINT CALCULATION BREAKDOWN - PART 1 (SERVICE POINTS)

Over the next 3 days, I'll breakdown the New Match Point Calculation for the FTL2026 season, and provide a rationale for the necessary changes. Today, we'll start with the Service Points portion of the calculation.  

 

OLD CALCULATION:Service Points had no Maximum or Minimum.  The calculation was as follows:

0.1 X # of Aces MINUS 0.1 X # of Double Faults  

NEW CALCULATION:

Service Points will have a Maximum of 4.0 points and a Minimum of -1.0 points.  The calculation is as follows: 

0.04 X Service Points Won % MINUS 0.05 X Service Games Lost %

 

RATIONALE:

Aces and Double Faults are easy statistics to grab from a players service game, but sadly it doesn't provide enough information or context to properly reward a player with points for their service games.  Lets be honest, in the end the only thing that really matters is whether or not a player was able to hold serve, and a players Aces and Double Faults can contribute to that result, but its not the be all and end all.

 

Lets talk about 2 specific scenarios. 

 

Scenario 1 - In the first set, Rublev hits 8 aces, doesn't hit a double fault, and yet still gets broken once out of 5 service games.  Rublev wins 65% of his points on his serve. 

Scenario 2 - In the first set, Shelton hits 1 aces, 2 double faults, 13 service winners, and doesn't get broken once.  Shelton wins 70% of his points on his serve

 

According to the Old Calculation, Rublev would get 0.8 points for that set (8 aces X 0.1), meanwhile Shelton would receive MINUS 0.1 points for that set (1 ace X 0.2 - 2 double fault X 0.1).  Safe to say, that doesn't seem appropriate.   Meanwhile, lets look at the math for the New Calculation.

 

Rublev

0.04 X (65%) - 0.05 X (1 of 5 )

=0.04 X 65 - 0.05 X 20

=2.6 - 1

= 1.6

Therefore Rublev would receive 1.6 points service points for that set

 

Shelton

0.04 X (70%) - 0.05 X (didn't get broken) 

=0.04 X 70 - 0.05 X 0

= 2.8 - 0

=2.8

Therefore Shelton receives 2.8 points service points for that set

 

 

FTL2026 - NEW MATCH POINTS CALCULATION

The start of the FTL2026 season is approximately 1 month away, and with that being the case, a massive change will come into play at the Aussie Open - A brand new Match Points Calculation.

 

So In with the new and out with the old.  Gone are the days where the only statistics that players were rewarded for in their service games were their Aces and Double Faults.  Instead, I'd like to introduce Service Points, where players are rewarded for the % of points that they win on their own serve and their hold %. 

 

The other major differential is that players are no longer rewarded for the sheer number of points that they win in a match, instead they are rewarded for the percentages of points that they have won.

Just a heads up, there is a 4% increase in points in the FTL2026 Match Points Calculation than in previous years - this increase will be factored into the Price Change Calculation

 

Below are 3 Match Results (2 from the ATP Finals, and 1 from the WTA Finals).  You can see the contrast between the new and the old Match Point Calculations

 

 

                                            SINNER vs ALCARAZ - ATP Finals

FTL2025 - MATCH POINTS

 FTL2026 - MATCH POINTS

 

 

ALCARAZ vs FRITZ - ATP Finals

 

FTL2025 - MATCH POINTS 

 

FTL2026 - MATCH POINTS

 

 

                                                    SABALENKA vs RYBAKINA - WTA Finals

FTL2025 - MATCH POINTS

 

FTL2026 - MATCH POINTS
 

 

FTL2026 - PLAYERS PRICE PREVIEW - PART 2!!

 

Hard to believe, but the FTL2026 season is a little over a month away!!  Due to a few big changes, the 2026 season isn't available yet on the NEXTGENFTL website, but it will be available before Christmas :).

 

For those that are looking for a glimpse as to what the prices will look like to start the season at the Aussie Open, below is a list of the 2nd Tier Valued Players that you could select (There are a few Slam Champions and former top 5 players amongst them!).  Are any of these players going to be on your team regardless of their draw?

 

 

FTL2026 - PLAYERS PRICE PREVIEW!!

Hard to believe, but the FTL2026 season is a little over a month away!!  Due to a few big changes, the 2026 season isn't available yet on the NEXTGENFTL website, but it will be available before Christmas :).

 

For those that are looking for a glimpse as to what the prices will look like to start the season at the Aussie Open, below is a list of the 20 highest valued players!