FTL2026 - NEW MATCH POINT CALCULATION BREAKDOWN - PART 4 - (Best of 5)

Lets continue the process of breaking down the New Match Point Calculation for the FTL2026 season, and provide a rationale for the necessary changes. Today, we'll address the changes to how the Best of 5 will be addressed.

 

In the Old Calculation, the number of points that a player could accumulate in Service, Return and KSI points was soo substantial that nextgenftl was forced to attach a 20% discount to anyone playing a Bo5, so that players involved in a Bo3 would be on a level playing field.   To make matters worse, the longer a match went on, the more and more points a player could accumulate - there was literally no maximum for the amount of points that a player could accumulate!

 

Meanwhile, in the New Calculation, Service, Return and KSI points are based on percentages and as a result, it won't matter if a player is involved in a Bo3 or a Bo5 match.  The adjustment to the Game % Bonus criteria is the only adjustment for the Bo5 matches.

 

*** For those that aren't aware the Game% category replaces the 4+ games in a set and Sets in the Old Calculation.  The Game % Bonus category helps ensure that highly competitive matches that aren't concluded in straight sets, are properly rewarded ****

 

Best of 3 format in the New Calculation

Game % Bonus

• Player wins a match and wins 16 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus. 
• Value =  4.0 - the points he received for the Game%
• Player loses the match and wins 14 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus.
• Value = Game% Bonus will be 1.0 points

Meanwhile, in a Best of 5 format in the New Calculation 

Game % Bonus

•  4 Set Match 

• Player wins a match and wins 22 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus. 
• Value =  4.0 - the points he received for the Game%
• Player loses the match and wins 18 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus.
• Value = 3.5 - the points he received for the Game%
• 5 Set Match
• Player wins a match and wins 26 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus. 
• Value =  4.0 - the points he received for the Game%
• Player loses the match and wins 24 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus.
• Value = Game% Bonus will be 1.0 points

FTL2026 - NEW MATCH POINT CALCULATION BREAKDOWN - PART 3 (KSI POINTS)

Lets continue the process of breaking down the New Match Point Calculation for the FTL2026 season, and provide a rationale for the necessary changes. Today, we'll address the KSI (Key Success Indicator) Points portion of the calculation 

OLD CALCULATION:

KSI Points had a Maximum of 13.5 points and a Minimum of 0.0 points.  The calculation was as follows:

4+ Games Won = 1 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set

Tiebreak Won = 0.5 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set

Sets Won = 1 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set

Match Won in Straight Sets = 3

Match Won while Losing 1 Set = 2

Match Won while Losing 2 Sets = 1 

NEW CALCULATION:

KSI Points will have a Maximum of 8.0 points and a Minimum of 0.0 points.  The calculation is as follows: 

Game % = 6 X (Games Won/Games Played) - maximum of 4.0 points

•  if either of the following conditions are met, 0.0 points will be awarded for Game %
• Player A Wins a Match in Straight Sets
• Player A wins less than 35% of the games played

Tiebreak Won = 0.5 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set 

Match Won in Straight Sets = 7 

Match Won while losing a Set = 3

Game % Bonus - Broken into 2 Separate Categories - Bo3 and Bo5.  For today, lets focus on the Bo3

• Player wins a match and wins 16 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus. 
• Value =  4.0 - the points he received for the Game%
• Player loses the match and wins 14 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus.
• Value = Game% Bonus will be 1.0 points

 

RATIONALE:

KSI Points are a simple way to reward a player for their success in a given match.  Sadly, in the previous method there were a couple of sizable issues that felt inappropriate

• the penalty is too severe for a player winning 3 games in a set instead of 4  - especially in a highly competitive match. 
• the entire point of a match is to win, so why is a player awarded with a different amount when they do so?  There has to be a better way to award a player with winning in less sets, no?
• far too many points are available in a Bo5  

Lets take a look at 2 specific scenarios.  

Scenario 1 - In Turin, Alcaraz beats Fritz 6-7, 7-5,6-3

 

According to the Old Calculation, 

Alcaraz would receive 7.0 points (3 X 1.0 + 0 X 0.5 + 2 X 1.0 +  2).   AND

Fritz would receive 3.5 points (2 X 1.0 + 1 X 0.5 + 1 X 1.0 + 0).

 

Meanwhile, at first glance the New Calculation looks a bit complicated, so lets have a better look

 

Alcaraz

6 X (19/34) + 0 X 0.5 + 0.0 + 3.0 + Game% Bonus. (eligible because 19games won > 16 games required)

= 3.4 + 0 + 3.0 + (4.0 - 3.4)

= 7.0

Therefore Alcaraz would receive 7.0 points for the match.  

 

Fritz 

6 X (15/34) + 1 X 0.5 + 0.0 + 0.0 + Game% Bonus. (eligible because 15games won > 14 games required)

= 2.6 + 0.5 + 0.0 + 0.0 + 1.0

= 4.1

Therefore Fritz would receive 4.1 points for the match.

 

Scenario  2 - In the WTA Finals, Anisimova beat Swiatek 6-7,6-4,6-2

 

According to the Old Calculation, 

Anisimova would receive 7.0 points (3 X 1.0 + 0 X 0.5 + 2 X 1.0 +  2)   AND

Swiatek would receive 3.5 points (2 X 1.0 + 1 X 0.5 + 1 X 1.0 + 0).

 

Meanwhile, lets look at the math for the New Calculation.

 

Anisimova

6 X (18/31) + 0 X 0.5 + 0.0 + 3.0 + Game% Bonus. (eligible because 18games won > 16 games required)

= 3.5 + 0 + 3.0 + (4.0 - 3.5)

= 7.0

Therefore Anisimova would receive 7.0 points for the match.  

 

Swiatek

6 X (13/31) + 1 X 0.5 + 0.0 + 0.0 + Game% Bonus. (ineligible because 13games won < 14 games required)

= 2.5 + 0.5 + 0.0 + 0.0 + 0.0

= 3.0

Therefore Swiatek would receive 3.0 points for the match.

FTL2026 - NEW MATCH POINT CALCULATION BREAKDOWN - PART 2 (RETURN POINTS)

Lets continue the process of breaking down the New Match Point Calculation for the FTL2026 season, and provide a rationale for the necessary changes. Today, we'll address the Return Points portion of the calculation.  

 

OLD CALCULATION: Return Points had no Maximum or Minimum.  The calculation was as follows:

First Serve Return Points = 0.2 X # of points won on first serve return 

Second Serve Return Points = 0.1 X # of points won on second serve return

Net Breaks = 0.5 X # of positive Net Breaks 

Total Return Points =  First Serve Return Points + Second Serve Return Points + Net Breaks

NEW CALCULATION:

Return Points will have a Maximum of 15.0 points and a Minimum of 0.0 points.  The calculation is as follows: 

First Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.2 X Opponents 1st Serve % X 1st Serve Return Win %)

Second Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.1 X Opponents 2nd Serve % X 2nd Serve Return Win %)

Break of Serve Points = 0.05 X Break % 

Total Return Points =  First Serve Return Points + Second Serve Return Points  + Break of Serve Points

 

RATIONALE:

The old calculation for Return Points is simple and effective, and looks correct at first and even second glance, but when you realize that its a statistic that gets bigger and bigger the longer a match goes, it loses its lustre.  A perfect example of this is that a player could break an opponent at love, and yet accumulate less points than a player that was involved in a game where they won 5 points and didn't generate a break of serve!!  Safe to say, that doesn't seem appropriate!

 

Lets talk about 2 specific scenarios. 

 

Scenario 1 - In Turin, Sinner hits 55% first serve, and wins 27% of his first serve return points (13 points), and 43% of his second serve return points (10 points).  Sinner broke Alcaraz at a 17% clip (twice)

Scenario 2 - In Turin, Alcaraz hits 68% first serve, and wins 16% of his first serve return points (7 points), and 46% of his second serve return points (16 points). Alcaraz broke Sinner at an 8% clip (once)

 

According to the Old Calculation, Sinner would get 4.1 points for that match (13 X 0.2 + 10 X 0.1 + 1 X 0.5), meanwhile Alcaraz would receive 3.0 points for that match (7 X 0.2 + 16 X 0.1 + 0 X 0.5).  Meanwhile, lets look at the math for the New Calculation.

 

Sinner

0.005 X  (0.2 X 68 X 27) + 0.005 X  (0.1 X 32 X 43) + 0.05 X (17)

=1.836 + 0.688 + 0.85

= 3.4

Therefore Sinner would receive 3.4 Total Return Points for that match

 

Alcaraz

0.005 X  (0.2 X 55 X 16) + 0.005 X  (0.1 X 45 X 46) + 0.05 X (8)

=0.88 + 1.035 + 0.4

= 2.315

Therefore Alcaraz would receive 2.315 Total Return Points for that match

FTL2026 - NEW MATCH POINT CALCULATION BREAKDOWN - PART 1 (SERVICE POINTS)

Over the next 3 days, I'll breakdown the New Match Point Calculation for the FTL2026 season, and provide a rationale for the necessary changes. Today, we'll start with the Service Points portion of the calculation.  

 

OLD CALCULATION:Service Points had no Maximum or Minimum.  The calculation was as follows:

0.1 X # of Aces MINUS 0.1 X # of Double Faults  

NEW CALCULATION:

Service Points will have a Maximum of 4.0 points and a Minimum of -1.0 points.  The calculation is as follows: 

0.04 X Service Points Won % MINUS 0.05 X Service Games Lost %

 

RATIONALE:

Aces and Double Faults are easy statistics to grab from a players service game, but sadly it doesn't provide enough information or context to properly reward a player with points for their service games.  Lets be honest, in the end the only thing that really matters is whether or not a player was able to hold serve, and a players Aces and Double Faults can contribute to that result, but its not the be all and end all.

 

Lets talk about 2 specific scenarios. 

 

Scenario 1 - In the first set, Rublev hits 8 aces, doesn't hit a double fault, and yet still gets broken once out of 5 service games.  Rublev wins 65% of his points on his serve. 

Scenario 2 - In the first set, Shelton hits 1 aces, 2 double faults, 13 service winners, and doesn't get broken once.  Shelton wins 70% of his points on his serve

 

According to the Old Calculation, Rublev would get 0.8 points for that set (8 aces X 0.1), meanwhile Shelton would receive MINUS 0.1 points for that set (1 ace X 0.2 - 2 double fault X 0.1).  Safe to say, that doesn't seem appropriate.   Meanwhile, lets look at the math for the New Calculation.

 

Rublev

0.04 X (65%) - 0.05 X (1 of 5 )

=0.04 X 65 - 0.05 X 20

=2.6 - 1

= 1.6

Therefore Rublev would receive 1.6 points service points for that set

 

Shelton

0.04 X (70%) - 0.05 X (didn't get broken) 

=0.04 X 70 - 0.05 X 0

= 2.8 - 0

=2.8

Therefore Shelton receives 2.8 points service points for that set