FTL2026 - NEW MATCH POINT CALCULATION BREAKDOWN - PART 2 (RETURN POINTS)

Lets continue the process of breaking down the New Match Point Calculation for the FTL2026 season, and provide a rationale for the necessary changes. Today, we'll address the Return Points portion of the calculation.  

 

OLD CALCULATION: Return Points had no Maximum or Minimum.  The calculation was as follows:

First Serve Return Points = 0.2 X # of points won on first serve return 

Second Serve Return Points = 0.1 X # of points won on second serve return

Net Breaks = 0.5 X # of positive Net Breaks 

Total Return Points =  First Serve Return Points + Second Serve Return Points + Net Breaks

NEW CALCULATION:

Return Points will have a Maximum of 15.0 points and a Minimum of 0.0 points.  The calculation is as follows: 

First Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.2 X Opponents 1st Serve % X 1st Serve Return Win %)

Second Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.1 X Opponents 2nd Serve % X 2nd Serve Return Win %)

Break of Serve Points = 0.05 X Break % 

Total Return Points =  First Serve Return Points + Second Serve Return Points  + Break of Serve Points

 

RATIONALE:

The old calculation for Return Points is simple and effective, and looks correct at first and even second glance, but when you realize that its a statistic that gets bigger and bigger the longer a match goes, it loses its lustre.  A perfect example of this is that a player could break an opponent at love, and yet accumulate less points than a player that was involved in a game where they won 5 points and didn't generate a break of serve!!  Safe to say, that doesn't seem appropriate!

 

Lets talk about 2 specific scenarios. 

 

Scenario 1 - In Turin, Sinner hits 55% first serve, and wins 27% of his first serve return points (13 points), and 43% of his second serve return points (10 points).  Sinner broke Alcaraz at a 17% clip (twice)

Scenario 2 - In Turin, Alcaraz hits 68% first serve, and wins 16% of his first serve return points (7 points), and 46% of his second serve return points (16 points). Alcaraz broke Sinner at an 8% clip (once)

 

According to the Old Calculation, Sinner would get 4.1 points for that match (13 X 0.2 + 10 X 0.1 + 1 X 0.5), meanwhile Alcaraz would receive 3.0 points for that match (7 X 0.2 + 16 X 0.1 + 0 X 0.5).  Meanwhile, lets look at the math for the New Calculation.

 

Sinner

0.005 X  (0.2 X 68 X 27) + 0.005 X  (0.1 X 32 X 43) + 0.05 X (17)

=1.836 + 0.688 + 0.85

= 3.4

Therefore Sinner would receive 3.4 Total Return Points for that match

 

Alcaraz

0.005 X  (0.2 X 55 X 16) + 0.005 X  (0.1 X 45 X 46) + 0.05 X (8)

=0.88 + 1.035 + 0.4

= 2.315

Therefore Alcaraz would receive 2.315 Total Return Points for that match