2026-01-10

ATP/WTA schedule

For a (relatively) up to date breakdown of who is playing where throughout the season, I have created a spreadsheet that i'll update when necessary which shows a breakdown of the ATP/WTA Schedule.

Which players have caught your eye so far in 2026?


 

FTLers love a bit of recency bias and lets face it - what else do we have to go on as we head into the Australian Open.
Which players have caught your attention this week and might make your final cut?
Has anyone been watching the United Cup? There have been some eye catching performances there:
Coco Gauff: 14m
Coco continues to be unpredictable. A woeful performance against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro suggested that her serve and forehand issues from last year are very much present but otherwise she played well at the United Cup culminating in her 4th straight sets win over Iga Swiatek in a row. (remember Iga used to beat her for fun?) What we can say is that when she's on, she's a match for anyone.
Hubert Hurkacz 5.25m How good is it to have a (muscle bound) Hubi back and he looks like he's on pretty decent form, easily despatching Zverev in Poland's match against Germany but just falling short in his match with ADM. It may take him a while to get totally up to speed but at that price and with him scheduled to play in Game Week 2, he might well be worth a punt.
Belinda Bencic 8.5 Momma Bencic (accompanied at her practice sessions by little Bella) has been terrific this week almost singlehandedly securing Switzerland's spot in the final with a little help from Jakub Paul in the doubles. She had to dig deep against Mertens but she's definitely got what it takes to go deep at the AO.
The same can be said for Elina Svitolina (8m) who like Belinda has plenty of experience and a never say die attitude. She's in the final in Auckland and has had to come through some tough battles in the process. The question is - will she have enough when it comes to tougher opponents if she goes deep at the AO?
Alexander Bublik (8m) really seemed to come of age last year, playing some terrific tennis and remarkably securing a reserve spot at the year end finals. Suddenly he realised that it might be a good idea to take tennis a little more seriously. That form seems to have continued into 2026 and the final against Musetti should be a great match.
By contrast Daniil Medvedev (9.5m) had a pretty rough year by his standards and ultimately parted ways with his long term coach Gilles Cervara. His form actually picked up significantly during the Asian swing with new coach Thomas Johanssen and that form seems to be continuing into 2026, Medvedev will play Nakashima in the ATP Brisbane final.
And we have a mouth watering final to look forward to at the WTA event in Brisbane.
Dare you go into the Australian Open without two time Champ Aryna Sabalenka? She'll set you back a cool 20m but she's looking every bit the no 1 at the moment.
Her opponent Marta Kostyuk has got everyone talking this week. Marta will only set you back 6m and she looks as if she has got big ambitions this season. Straight sets wins over Anisimova, Andreeva and Pegula suggest that we have a very different Marta from the player who struggled with confidence last year.

2026-01-03

NEW MATCH POINT CALCULATION - REAL TIME SCORING - end of match

Lets continue to take a look at how the point totals vary throughout the Taylor Fritz vs Sebastian Baez's match at the United Cup from earlier today.  

Now we'll look at how things after the final ball is played!

SERVICE POINTS: TAYLOR FRITZ

= 0.04 X Service Points Won % MINUS 0.05 X Service Games Lost %

= 0.04 X (63) - 0.05 X (25)

= 2.5 - 1.3

= 1.2 

TOTAL RETURN POINTS: 

First Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.2 X Opponents 1st Serve % X 1st Serve Return Win %)

                                          = 0.005 X (0.2 X 75 X 36)

                                          = 2.7

Second Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.1 X Opponents 2nd Serve % X 2nd Serve Return Win %)

                                            = 0.005 X ( 0.1 X 25 X 41)

                                            = 0.5125

Break of Serve Points = 0.05 X Break % 

                                     = 0.05 X (19)

                                     = 0.95

Total Return Points =  First Serve Return Points + Second Serve Return Points  + Break of Serve Points

                                 = 2.7 + 0.5125 + 0.95

                                  = 4.163

KSI POINTS:


 Game % = 6 X (Games Won/Games Played)

                = 6 X (15/32)

                = 2.8

Tiebreak Won = 0.5 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set

                        = 0.5 X 0

                        = 0 

Lost the Match so no 0.0 points for match won.

Game % Bonus : (15 games won > 14 games won, therefore eligible)

                        =1.0  

KSI POINTS = Game % + Tiebreak Won + Match Won in Straight Sets + Match Won while losing a Set+ Game % Bonus

                      = 2.8 + 0 + 0 + 1.0

                      = 3.8

TOTAL POINTS = SERVE POINTS + RETURN POINTS + POINT DIFF % + KSI POINTS

                            = 1.2 + 4.163 + 0.1 X (1) + 3.8

                            = 9.2 

As a result Taylor Fritz's FTL Match Point total for the match ends up being 9.2 points.  After the first set, Taylor was projected to acccumulate 11.8 points (and 9.1 points after the 2nd set), highlights the fact that the points can vary up and down based on how you perform.  This is something that couldn't happen with the original format.

 

SERVICE POINTS: SEBASTIAN BAEZ

= 0.04 X Service Points Won % MINUS 0.05 X Service Games Lost %

= 0.04 X (63) - 0.05 X (19)

= 2.5 - 1.0

= 1.5 

 

TOTAL RETURN POINTS: 

First Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.2 X Opponents 1st Serve % X 1st Serve Return Win %)

                                          = 0.005 ( 0.2 X 55 X 23)

                                          = 1.265

Second Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.1 X Opponents 2nd Serve % X 2nd Serve Return Win %)

                                             = 0.005 ( 0.1 X 45 X 54)

                                             =  1.215

Break of Serve Points = 0.05 X Break % 

                                     = 0.05 X (25)

                                     = 1.3

Total Return Points =  First Serve Return Points + Second Serve Return Points  + Break of Serve Points

                               = 1.265 + 1.215 + 1.3

                                = 3.73

KSI POINTS:

Game % = 6 X (Games Won/Games Played)

                = 6 X (17/32)

                = 3.2

Tiebreak Won = 0.5 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set

                        = 0.5 X 0

                        = 0 

Match Won while Losing a Set = 3.0

Game % Bonus :   (17 games won > 16 games won, therefore eligible)

                      = 4 - Game %

                       = 4 - 3.2

                       = 0.8  

KSI POINTS = Game % + Tiebreak Won + Match Won in Straight Sets + Match Won while losing a Set+ Game % Bonus

                      = 3.2 + 0 + 3.0 + 0.8

                      = 7.0 

TOTAL POINTS = SERVE POINTS + RETURN POINTS + POINT DIFF % + KSI POINTS

                            = 1.5 + 3.7 + 0.1 X (0) + 7.0

                            = 12.3

 

As a result Sebastian Baez's FTL Match Point total for the match ends up being 12.3 points.  After the first set, Sebastian was projected to acccumulate 5.4 points (and 8.1 points after the 2nd set), highlights the fact that the points can ramp up quickly if you play well after losing the first set.  


NEW MATCH POINT CALCULATION - REAL TIME SCORING - SECOND SET

Lets continue to take a look at how the point totals vary throughout the Taylor Fritz vs Sebastian Baez's match at the United Cup from earlier today.  

Now we'll look at how things look after the 2nd set

SERVICE POINTS: TAYLOR FRITZ

= 0.04 X Service Points Won % MINUS 0.05 X Service Games Lost %

= 0.04 X (61) - 0.05 X (27)

= 2.4 - 1.4

= 1.0 

TOTAL RETURN POINTS: 

First Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.2 X Opponents 1st Serve % X 1st Serve Return Win %)

                                          = 0.005 X (0.2 X 74 X 40)

                                          = 2.96

Second Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.1 X Opponents 2nd Serve % X 2nd Serve Return Win %)

                                            = 0.005 X ( 0.1 X 26 X 45)

                                            = 0.585

Break of Serve Points = 0.05 X Break % 

                                     = 0.05 X (27)

                                     = 1.4 

Total Return Points =  First Serve Return Points + Second Serve Return Points  + Break of Serve Points

                                 = 2.96 + 0.585 + 1.4

                                  = 4.895

KSI POINTS:


 Game % = 6 X (Games Won/Games Played)

                = 6 X (11/22)

                = 3.0

Tiebreak Won = 0.5 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set

                        = 0.5 X 0

                        = 0 

Match Not over, so 0.0 points for Match Won or Game % Bonus

 

KSI POINTS = Game % + Tiebreak Won + Match Won in Straight Sets + Match Won while losing a Set+ Game % Bonus

                      = 3.0 + 0

                      = 3.0

TOTAL POINTS = SERVE POINTS + RETURN POINTS + POINT DIFF % + KSI POINTS

                            = 1.0 + 4.895 + 0.1 X (1) + 3.0

                            = 9.1 

one thing to keep in mind is that by Taylor winning 11 games in the first 2 sets, he's got a great chance of being eligible to receive a Game % Bonus - if he wins the match he'll be up to 17 games won which is more than enough, and even if he loses, he'll only need 3 games in order to be eligible!

SERVICE POINTS: SEBASTIAN BAEZ

= 0.04 X Service Points Won % MINUS 0.05 X Service Games Lost %

= 0.04 X (59) - 0.05 X (27)

= 2.4 - 1.4

= 1.0 

 

TOTAL RETURN POINTS: 

First Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.2 X Opponents 1st Serve % X 1st Serve Return Win %)

                                          = 0.005 ( 0.2 X 57 X 27)

                                          = 1.539

Second Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.1 X Opponents 2nd Serve % X 2nd Serve Return Win %)

                                             = 0.005 ( 0.1 X 43 X 55)

                                             =  1.1825

Break of Serve Points = 0.05 X Break % 

                                     = 0.05 X (27)

                                     = 1.4

Total Return Points =  First Serve Return Points + Second Serve Return Points  + Break of Serve Points

                               = 1.539 + 1.1825 + 1.4

                                = 4.0715

KSI POINTS:

Game % = 6 X (Games Won/Games Played)

                = 6 X (11/22)

                = 3.0

Tiebreak Won = 0.5 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set

                        = 0.5 X 0

                        = 0 

Match Not over, so 0.0 points for Match Won or Game % Bonus

 

KSI POINTS = Game % + Tiebreak Won + Match Won in Straight Sets + Match Won while losing a Set+ Game % Bonus

                      = 3.0 + 0

                      = 3.0 

TOTAL POINTS = SERVE POINTS + RETURN POINTS + POINT DIFF % + KSI POINTS

                            = 1.0 + 4.0715 + 0.1 X (0) + 3.0

                            = 8.1

one thing to keep in mind is that by Sebastian winning 11 games in the first 2 sets, he's got a great chance of being eligible to receive a Game % Bonus - if he wins the match he'll be up to 17 games won which is more than enough, and even if he loses, he'll only need 3 games in order to be eligible!

NEW MATCH POINT CALCULATION - REAL TIME SCORING - FIRST SET

Since rolling out the New Match Point Calculation, there have been many queries regarding real time scoring.  So lets put a couple of those questions to rest.  First things first, we have to remember that the New Match Point Calculation works completely differently than the previous calculation.  In the previous method, every time a player accumulated an FTL point, that point was locked in place and that total could only get bigger as the match went on.  Whereas, in the New Match Point Calculation, everything is based on percentages, so if you were to do real time scoring throughout a match, you could easy see a players FTL point total vary up and down as the match progressed.

 

Lets take a look at how the point totals vary throughout the Taylor Fritz vs Sebastian Baez's match at the United Cup from earlier today.  

 Lets start with how it looked after the First Set :)

SERVICE POINTS: TAYLOR FRITZ

= 0.04 X Service Points Won % MINUS 0.05 X Service Games Lost %

= 0.04 X (71) - 0.05 X (0)

= 2.8 

TOTAL RETURN POINTS: 

First Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.2 X Opponents 1st Serve % X 1st Serve Return Win %)

                                          = 0.005 X (0.2 X 81 X 40)

                                          = 3.24

Second Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.1 X Opponents 2nd Serve % X 2nd Serve Return Win %)

                                            = 0.005 X ( 0.1 X 19 X 33)

                                            = 0.3135 

Break of Serve Points = 0.05 X Break % 

                                     = 0.05 X (20)

                                     = 1.0 

Total Return Points =  First Serve Return Points + Second Serve Return Points  + Break of Serve Points

                                 = 3.24 + 0.3135 + 1.0

                                  = 4.5535 

KSI POINTS:


 Game % = 6 X (Games Won/Games Played)

                = 6 X (6/10)

                = 3.6 

Tiebreak Won = 0.5 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set

                        = 0.5 X 0

                        = 0 

Match Not over, so 0.0 points for Match Won or Game % Bonus

 

KSI POINTS = Game % + Tiebreak Won + Match Won in Straight Sets + Match Won while losing a Set+ Game % Bonus

                      = 3.6 + 0

                      = 3.6 

TOTAL POINTS = SERVE POINTS + RETURN POINTS + POINT DIFF % + KSI POINTS

                            = 2.8 + 4.6 + 0.1 X (8) + 3.6

                            = 11.8 

SERVICE POINTS: SEBASTIAN BAEZ

= 0.04 X Service Points Won % MINUS 0.05 X Service Games Lost %

= 0.04 X (61) - 0.05 X (20)

= 2.4 - 1.0

= 1.4 

 

TOTAL RETURN POINTS: 

First Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.2 X Opponents 1st Serve % X 1st Serve Return Win %)

                                          = 0.005 ( 0.2 X 50 X 7)

                                          = 0.35

Second Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.1 X Opponents 2nd Serve % X 2nd Serve Return Win %)

                                             = 0.005 ( 0.1 X 50 X 50)

                                             =  1.25

Break of Serve Points = 0.05 X Break % 

                                     = 0.05 X (0)

                                     = 0  

Total Return Points =  First Serve Return Points + Second Serve Return Points  + Break of Serve Points

                               = 0.35 + 1.25 + 0

                                = 1.6 

KSI POINTS:

Game % = 6 X (Games Won/Games Played)

                = 6 X (4/10)

                = 2.4

Tiebreak Won = 0.5 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set

                        = 0.5 X 0

                        = 0 

Match Not over, so 0.0 points for Match Won or Game % Bonus

 

KSI POINTS = Game % + Tiebreak Won + Match Won in Straight Sets + Match Won while losing a Set+ Game % Bonus

                      = 2.4 + 0

                      = 2.4 

TOTAL POINTS = SERVE POINTS + RETURN POINTS + POINT DIFF % + KSI POINTS

                            = 1.4 + 1.6 + 0.1 X (0) + 2.4

                            = 5.4


2025-12-27

FTL2026 - NEW MATCH POINT CALCULATION BREAKDOWN - PART 4 - (Best of 5)

Lets continue the process of breaking down the New Match Point Calculation for the FTL2026 season, and provide a rationale for the necessary changes. Today, we'll address the changes to how the Best of 5 will be addressed.

 

In the Old Calculation, the number of points that a player could accumulate in Service, Return and KSI points was soo substantial that nextgenftl was forced to attach a 20% discount to anyone playing a Bo5, so that players involved in a Bo3 would be on a level playing field.   To make matters worse, the longer a match went on, the more and more points a player could accumulate - there was literally no maximum for the amount of points that a player could accumulate!

 

Meanwhile, in the New Calculation, Service, Return and KSI points are based on percentages and as a result, it won't matter if a player is involved in a Bo3 or a Bo5 match.  The adjustment to the Game % Bonus criteria is the only adjustment for the Bo5 matches.

 

*** For those that aren't aware the Game% category replaces the 4+ games in a set and Sets in the Old Calculation.  The Game % Bonus category helps ensure that highly competitive matches that aren't concluded in straight sets, are properly rewarded ****

 

Best of 3 format in the New Calculation

Game % Bonus

  • Player wins a match and wins 16 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus. 
    • Value =  4.0 - the points he received for the Game%
  • Player loses the match and wins 14 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus.
    • Value = Game% Bonus will be 1.0 points

Meanwhile, in a Best of 5 format in the New Calculation 

Game % Bonus

  •  4 Set Match 
    • Player wins a match and wins 22 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus. 
      • Value =  4.0 - the points he received for the Game%
    • Player loses the match and wins 18 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus.
      • Value = 3.5 - the points he received for the Game%
  • 5 Set Match
    • Player wins a match and wins 26 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus. 
      • Value =  4.0 - the points he received for the Game%
    • Player loses the match and wins 24 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus.
      • Value = Game% Bonus will be 1.0 points

2025-12-26

FTL2026 - NEW MATCH POINT CALCULATION BREAKDOWN - PART 3 (KSI POINTS)

Lets continue the process of breaking down the New Match Point Calculation for the FTL2026 season, and provide a rationale for the necessary changes. Today, we'll address the KSI (Key Success Indicator) Points portion of the calculation 


OLD CALCULATION:

KSI Points had a Maximum of 13.5 points and a Minimum of 0.0 points.  The calculation was as follows:

4+ Games Won = 1 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set

Tiebreak Won = 0.5 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set

Sets Won = 1 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set

Match Won in Straight Sets = 3

Match Won while Losing 1 Set = 2

Match Won while Losing 2 Sets = 1 

NEW CALCULATION:

KSI Points will have a Maximum of 8.0 points and a Minimum of 0.0 points.  The calculation is as follows: 

Game % = 6 X (Games Won/Games Played) - maximum of 4.0 points

  •  if either of the following conditions are met, 0.0 points will be awarded for Game %
    • Player A Wins a Match in Straight Sets
    • Player A wins less than 35% of the games played

Tiebreak Won = 0.5 X # of times a player achieved this is any given set 

Match Won in Straight Sets = 7 

Match Won while losing a Set = 3

Game % Bonus - Broken into 2 Separate Categories - Bo3 and Bo5.  For today, lets focus on the Bo3

  • Player wins a match and wins 16 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus. 
    • Value =  4.0 - the points he received for the Game%
  • Player loses the match and wins 14 games or more, he will receive a Game % Bonus.
    • Value = Game% Bonus will be 1.0 points

 

RATIONALE:

KSI Points are a simple way to reward a player for their success in a given match.  Sadly, in the previous method there were a couple of sizable issues that felt inappropriate

  • the penalty is too severe for a player winning 3 games in a set instead of 4  - especially in a highly competitive match. 
  • the entire point of a match is to win, so why is a player awarded with a different amount when they do so?  There has to be a better way to award a player with winning in less sets, no?
  • far too many points are available in a Bo5  


Lets take a look at 2 specific scenarios.  

Scenario 1 - In Turin, Alcaraz beats Fritz 6-7, 7-5,6-3

 

According to the Old Calculation, 

Alcaraz would receive 7.0 points (3 X 1.0 + 0 X 0.5 + 2 X 1.0 +  2).   AND

Fritz would receive 3.5 points (2 X 1.0 + 1 X 0.5 + 1 X 1.0 + 0).

 

Meanwhile, at first glance the New Calculation looks a bit complicated, so lets have a better look

 

Alcaraz

6 X (19/34) + 0 X 0.5 + 0.0 + 3.0 + Game% Bonus. (eligible because 19games won > 16 games required)

= 3.4 + 0 + 3.0 + (4.0 - 3.4)

= 7.0

Therefore Alcaraz would receive 7.0 points for the match.  

 

Fritz 

6 X (15/34) + 1 X 0.5 + 0.0 + 0.0 + Game% Bonus. (eligible because 15games won > 14 games required)

= 2.6 + 0.5 + 0.0 + 0.0 + 1.0

= 4.1

Therefore Fritz would receive 4.1 points for the match.

 

Scenario  2 - In the WTA Finals, Anisimova beat Swiatek 6-7,6-4,6-2

 

According to the Old Calculation, 

Anisimova would receive 7.0 points (3 X 1.0 + 0 X 0.5 + 2 X 1.0 +  2)   AND

Swiatek would receive 3.5 points (2 X 1.0 + 1 X 0.5 + 1 X 1.0 + 0).

 

Meanwhile, lets look at the math for the New Calculation.

 

Anisimova

6 X (18/31) + 0 X 0.5 + 0.0 + 3.0 + Game% Bonus. (eligible because 18games won > 16 games required)

= 3.5 + 0 + 3.0 + (4.0 - 3.5)

= 7.0

Therefore Anisimova would receive 7.0 points for the match.  

 

Swiatek

6 X (13/31) + 1 X 0.5 + 0.0 + 0.0 + Game% Bonus. (ineligible because 13games won < 14 games required)

= 2.5 + 0.5 + 0.0 + 0.0 + 0.0

= 3.0

Therefore Swiatek would receive 3.0 points for the match.




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