FTL2026 - NEW MATCH POINT CALCULATION BREAKDOWN - PART 2 (RETURN POINTS)

Lets continue the process of breaking down the New Match Point Calculation for the FTL2026 season, and provide a rationale for the necessary changes. Today, we'll address the Return Points portion of the calculation.  

 

OLD CALCULATION: Return Points had no Maximum or Minimum.  The calculation was as follows:

First Serve Return Points = 0.2 X # of points won on first serve return 

Second Serve Return Points = 0.1 X # of points won on second serve return

Net Breaks = 0.5 X # of positive Net Breaks 

Total Return Points =  First Serve Return Points + Second Serve Return Points + Net Breaks

NEW CALCULATION:

Return Points will have a Maximum of 15.0 points and a Minimum of 0.0 points.  The calculation is as follows: 

First Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.2 X Opponents 1st Serve % X 1st Serve Return Win %)

Second Serve Return Points = 0.005 X (0.1 X Opponents 2nd Serve % X 2nd Serve Return Win %)

Break of Serve Points = 0.05 X Break % 

Total Return Points =  First Serve Return Points + Second Serve Return Points  + Break of Serve Points

 

RATIONALE:

The old calculation for Return Points is simple and effective, and looks correct at first and even second glance, but when you realize that its a statistic that gets bigger and bigger the longer a match goes, it loses its lustre.  A perfect example of this is that a player could break an opponent at love, and yet accumulate less points than a player that was involved in a game where they won 5 points and didn't generate a break of serve!!  Safe to say, that doesn't seem appropriate!

 

Lets talk about 2 specific scenarios. 

 

Scenario 1 - In Turin, Sinner hits 55% first serve, and wins 27% of his first serve return points (13 points), and 43% of his second serve return points (10 points).  Sinner broke Alcaraz at a 17% clip (twice)

Scenario 2 - In Turin, Alcaraz hits 68% first serve, and wins 16% of his first serve return points (7 points), and 46% of his second serve return points (16 points). Alcaraz broke Sinner at an 8% clip (once)

 

According to the Old Calculation, Sinner would get 4.1 points for that match (13 X 0.2 + 10 X 0.1 + 1 X 0.5), meanwhile Alcaraz would receive 3.0 points for that match (7 X 0.2 + 16 X 0.1 + 0 X 0.5).  Meanwhile, lets look at the math for the New Calculation.

 

Sinner

0.005 X  (0.2 X 68 X 27) + 0.005 X  (0.1 X 32 X 43) + 0.05 X (17)

=1.836 + 0.688 + 0.85

= 3.4

Therefore Sinner would receive 3.4 Total Return Points for that match

 

Alcaraz

0.005 X  (0.2 X 55 X 16) + 0.005 X  (0.1 X 45 X 46) + 0.05 X (8)

=0.88 + 1.035 + 0.4

= 2.315

Therefore Alcaraz would receive 2.315 Total Return Points for that match

FTL2026 - NEW MATCH POINT CALCULATION BREAKDOWN - PART 1 (SERVICE POINTS)

Over the next 3 days, I'll breakdown the New Match Point Calculation for the FTL2026 season, and provide a rationale for the necessary changes. Today, we'll start with the Service Points portion of the calculation.  

 

OLD CALCULATION:Service Points had no Maximum or Minimum.  The calculation was as follows:

0.1 X # of Aces MINUS 0.1 X # of Double Faults  

NEW CALCULATION:

Service Points will have a Maximum of 4.0 points and a Minimum of -1.0 points.  The calculation is as follows: 

0.04 X Service Points Won % MINUS 0.05 X Service Games Lost %

 

RATIONALE:

Aces and Double Faults are easy statistics to grab from a players service game, but sadly it doesn't provide enough information or context to properly reward a player with points for their service games.  Lets be honest, in the end the only thing that really matters is whether or not a player was able to hold serve, and a players Aces and Double Faults can contribute to that result, but its not the be all and end all.

 

Lets talk about 2 specific scenarios. 

 

Scenario 1 - In the first set, Rublev hits 8 aces, doesn't hit a double fault, and yet still gets broken once out of 5 service games.  Rublev wins 65% of his points on his serve. 

Scenario 2 - In the first set, Shelton hits 1 aces, 2 double faults, 13 service winners, and doesn't get broken once.  Shelton wins 70% of his points on his serve

 

According to the Old Calculation, Rublev would get 0.8 points for that set (8 aces X 0.1), meanwhile Shelton would receive MINUS 0.1 points for that set (1 ace X 0.2 - 2 double fault X 0.1).  Safe to say, that doesn't seem appropriate.   Meanwhile, lets look at the math for the New Calculation.

 

Rublev

0.04 X (65%) - 0.05 X (1 of 5 )

=0.04 X 65 - 0.05 X 20

=2.6 - 1

= 1.6

Therefore Rublev would receive 1.6 points service points for that set

 

Shelton

0.04 X (70%) - 0.05 X (didn't get broken) 

=0.04 X 70 - 0.05 X 0

= 2.8 - 0

=2.8

Therefore Shelton receives 2.8 points service points for that set

 

 

FTL2026 - NEW MATCH POINTS CALCULATION

The start of the FTL2026 season is approximately 1 month away, and with that being the case, a massive change will come into play at the Aussie Open - A brand new Match Points Calculation.

 

So In with the new and out with the old.  Gone are the days where the only statistics that players were rewarded for in their service games were their Aces and Double Faults.  Instead, I'd like to introduce Service Points, where players are rewarded for the % of points that they win on their own serve and their hold %. 

 

The other major differential is that players are no longer rewarded for the sheer number of points that they win in a match, instead they are rewarded for the percentages of points that they have won.

Just a heads up, there is a 4% increase in points in the FTL2026 Match Points Calculation than in previous years - this increase will be factored into the Price Change Calculation

 

Below are 3 Match Results (2 from the ATP Finals, and 1 from the WTA Finals).  You can see the contrast between the new and the old Match Point Calculations

 

 

                                            SINNER vs ALCARAZ - ATP Finals

FTL2025 - MATCH POINTS

 FTL2026 - MATCH POINTS

 

 

ALCARAZ vs FRITZ - ATP Finals

 

FTL2025 - MATCH POINTS 

 

FTL2026 - MATCH POINTS

 

 

                                                    SABALENKA vs RYBAKINA - WTA Finals

FTL2025 - MATCH POINTS

 

FTL2026 - MATCH POINTS
 

 

FTL2026 - PLAYERS PRICE PREVIEW - PART 2!!

 

Hard to believe, but the FTL2026 season is a little over a month away!!  Due to a few big changes, the 2026 season isn't available yet on the NEXTGENFTL website, but it will be available before Christmas :).

 

For those that are looking for a glimpse as to what the prices will look like to start the season at the Aussie Open, below is a list of the 2nd Tier Valued Players that you could select (There are a few Slam Champions and former top 5 players amongst them!).  Are any of these players going to be on your team regardless of their draw?

 

 

FTL2026 - PLAYERS PRICE PREVIEW!!

Hard to believe, but the FTL2026 season is a little over a month away!!  Due to a few big changes, the 2026 season isn't available yet on the NEXTGENFTL website, but it will be available before Christmas :).

 

For those that are looking for a glimpse as to what the prices will look like to start the season at the Aussie Open, below is a list of the 20 highest valued players!

 

 

FTL2025 FINAL OVERALL RESULTS

Massive kuddos goes out to our Overall Winner - Dragan (Nadal's Forehand) He accumulated an incredible 16115.665 points for the season, and won the overall by 67.6 points.  Not only did he win the overall, but he also won the FTL Cup!!!  ZERO IDEA how you win both lol - there's only a few ppl that have ever won the Overall, he's now the first person to ever win the FTL Cup, forget winning both in the same season!

 

Dragan may have won the overall, but for most of the season it felt like it was anyones game. In fact, there was a couple of prolonged periods where it felt like we could have a different winner.  After Michael Blomer (ThunderTurkeys) finished in the top 3 in both March and April, he took a substantial lead and led for a prolonged period.  Shortly there after, Sagar (Goaldies) took the lead for 5 or 6 weeks but had an incredibly poor stretch where he finished outside the top 50 in both June and July.  

 

Dragan didn't win a single GameWeek or Month this season, but continued to put up top 20 result after top 20 result each month and by the time October hit, he had a 150+ point lead.  But in the FTL, no lead is safe, especially during the Asian-Swing that's full of Semi-Blind draws, so it makes the results even more volatile.  Hell all it takes is a couple of poor results, injuries or ill-timed withdrawals and you can lose a few hundred points in no time.  Sure enough during the Penultimate week, it appeared as though Dragan's lead was going to disappear!  Instead, Pegula couldn't find a way to close out Rybakina in the WTA Finals, and Djokovic withdrew from Turin!!  I'm not a big believer in Karma, but this result felt like the Karma Gods did Dragan a massive favour!  For those that don't know, a couple of years ago, Dragan was in 2nd place with 3 weeks to go, and due to a family obligation, missed the lockout.  When I inquired about it, he didn't blame technology or anything else, just simply accepted the result of a horrible situation!

 

Nikhil (nbladeweilder) finished 2nd.  I'm sure for most of the season he felt like he was out of contention for the top 10 forget the top prize, but his team got scorching hot over the final 4 months as he finished 5th in August, 2nd in October and 3rd in November!  Like I described earlier, if Pegula beats Rybakina (its literally a point here or there from her doing so) in the WTA Finals, and Djokovic fulfills the expectation of playing in the ATP Finals, he ends up doing the unthinkable and winning the whole damn thing, while only leading the Overall for 1 week!!  I'm sure that he'll take plenty of solace out of the fact that he won 2 Months, and 2 Game Weeks!!

 

Alex (broccoli) finished 3rd, 95 points behind Nikhil.  Alex didn't win a single GameWeek or Month but was actually sitting in 2nd place with about a month to go in the season.  Its an incredible result, but it looked like trades were an issue for his final few weeks, so like many of us, I'm sure that he felt like his hands were tied and was just hoping for the best.

 

Mathieu (NEW CAL ACES 🎾🏝️) finished 4th, 29 points behind Alex.  Mat finished 2nd at the Aussie Open and was 3rd in the First Month, and was in contention all season, but just couldn't find a way to get across the line.  Similar to Alex, Mat had trade issues, as he only had 1 trade left for the final 3 weeks, and was lucky that Djokovic withdrew from Turin.  

 

Our 2023 Overall Champion Aoun (Fedex Superstars) finished 5th, 140 points behind Mathieu, and just 4.5 points ahead of one of our GOAT's Vlad.  Its his 3rd straight top 5 finish!!  Aoun was in the big cluster of managers that won the final GW of the season.  Sadly for Aoun, it never felt like he was in contention to really win the Overall this season, but its still a hell of a finish.

 

I'd like to offer a shoutout to the rest of our top 10: 

6.  Vlad (Rafa) - he's one of the GOAT's for a reason, even during an off season, he still finished in the top 10.

7. Sagar (Goaldies) - felt like a what if type of season.  He was soo good for soo long, but it appeared as though he got too caught up on being in the lead, that he lost focus of his salary cap and the number of trades that he was using, and eventually paid for it. (you cant play the final 3 to 4 months with your hands tied behind your back)

8. Tricia (Prepare for CzechMate) - her run of top 3 finishes finally came to a close (like 5 in a row?) - had to happen sooner or later!

9. Gord (Gordon Trailers) - probably should have finished 4th, but the decision to trade in a sick Paolini instead of Rybakina at the WTA Finals will haunt him

10.  Jamie (The Umpire Strikes Back) - back to back top 10 seasons for Jamie.  Thats special!

 

Game Week 33 round up

 

This weeks champs

Elena Rybakina  (WTA Finals Riyadh)

Lerner Tien  (Metz)

Novak Djokovic (Athens)

To Riyadh first and the WTA Tour Finals.     

The quest for Elena Rybakina to overhaul Mirra Andreeva and reach the top 8 was the main storyline at the end of the WTA season.   As Andreeva's season faltered both Jasmine Paolini and Elena Rybakina finished the season strongly.  Paolini secured her spot by making the semi finals in Wuhan and Ningbo and Rybakina won the title in Ningbo and completed the job in Tokyo by reaching the semi finals.

Andreeva had to settle for a spot in the doubles contest but as it turned out, Mirra was one of three players who was unwell at Riyadh along with Paolini and Madison Keys.  

But Rybakina was feeling great when she arrived in Riyadh -  confidence high after her run of impressive results and it was quickly apparent that the conditions in Riyadh would be perfect for her game.  Many pundits were already picking her as a dark horse who could upset the top two of Swiatek and Sabalenka.

And she started off brightly dispatching Anisimova 6-3, 6-1 in her opening match.  Even more surprising was the manner in which she demolished Iga Swiatek after losing the first set of their encounter. She lost just one game in the next two sets.  That was enough to secure qualification and a final win over Alexandrova who replaced the ill Madison Keys was academic but preserved her unbeaten status.

Iga Swiatek and Amanada Anisimova battled it out for the 2nd place spot and Anisimova, who was finally finding her feet on the Riyadh courts came out on top.  Despite Iga still have a strong season on tour, the manner of some of her defeats will be a concern to her and her team going into 2026.

With Paolini under the weather, the Stefanie Group was always going to between world no 1 Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Jess Pegula and it was always a possibility that the opening match between Gauff and Pegula would be crucial.  It was a bit of a dire affair if truth be told, Coco's serve and forehand issues continued to haunt her and she loss to J-Peg in three sets. 

Aryna was pushed by Pegula and Gauff but managed to overcome them both to finish the group on top with an unblemished record.  

If the group stages perhaps didn't catch fire - the semi finals were crackers. Sabalenka was pushed all the way by Anisimova and Rybakina once again came from a set down to defeat Pegula.   

That left us with a dream final with the two undefeated group winners Rybakina and Sabalenka.  Rybakina just kept on rolling, putting in a sterling performance to win  6-3, 7-6 and secure a modest total of 5.235 million in winnings as an undefeated champion!

Athens

The penultimate week of the ATP Season also carried significant weight in terms of Tour Finals qualification.  Lorenzo Musetti went into the Athens event knowing he had to win it to regain his place in the top 8 from Felix Auger Aliassime who had overtaken him in the race at the Paris Masters.  FAA was also down to play in Metz but decided to withdraw due to a niggling injury and just took the risk hoping that Musetti wouldn't get it done. 

FAA must have been watching from behind the sofa as Musetti came from a set down to beat Wawrinka, beat Muller and then came through a tough battle with Korda to reach the final.

The opponent?  Novak Djokovic of course.  Novak had of course long since qualified for the tour finals but there were questions about his participation in Turin for months and Novak was in no mood to clarify the position, An announcement by the Italian federation that he was playing was quickly dismissed by Novak as premature!

So, as far as Musetti was concerned, he had to win that final!  He started well, winning the first set but Novak was not to be denied in front of his adopted Greek fans.  Musetti lost the 2nd set and was quickly a break behind in the 3rd set but he kept coming back only to be broken again by Novak.

So Djokovic prevailed and secured his 101st ATP title but it didn't take him long to confirm what most of us expected.  He would not be participating at the tour finals in Turin and apparently Musetti was the first to know when they shook hands at the net!

It must have been mixed feelings for Lorenzo - on the one hand the joy of knowing he would be able to compete in the tour finals in his own country and actually benefit from a higher seeded spot as Novak's replacement but on the other hand, he would have probably preferred a week of rest prior to the event.  Had Novak's mind been made up before Athens?  Possibly... but its also possible that an early exit in Athens might have given him the motivation and preparation time to compete in Turin.

Metz

The Metz final was contested between Cameron Norrie and Lerner Tien.  

Cam seems to be rediscovering his form after going through a bit of a rough patch and Lerner Tien continues to gain admirers with his aggressive brand of tennis.

This will be the last year of the Metz event which is a shame as it always attracts a sizeable audience and Norrie and Tien did not let them down in a thrilling final.   Norrie recovered from a 1-4 deficit in the final set to force a tie break and he appeared to have the match within his grasp as he took a 5-1 lead in the tie break only for Tien to come roaring back to win the title!

Here is the Global League Table for the game week:

Congrats to Frances Durkin and Novak's last stand who just pipped Michael Schmaderbeck (Ace) to top the global game week leaderboard.   

Here is the game week winning team.

In a week where most squads were focusing on players in the WTA finals and had the remainder of their squad filled with ATP final contestants, there was scope for some manager to find a good differential who might just make a difference.  Frances found that player in Cameron Norrie who's run to the final in Metz made him an excellent choice.

Frances still had 6 WTA players in her team but managed to leave out the two who finished bottom of their groups.  She also had Athens winner Novak Djokovic in her side.  All in all an excellent team which could have been even better if she had opted to go with Musetti over Iga or Coco.

Here is the head to head for the two teams who contested the level 2 prize this game week. 

Congrats to Michael who tops the level 2 table this week beating Devin by 13 points.  Devin actually missed the news about FAA not playing so had Musetti coming in as a replacement.  The additional points that Devin would have gained from having Musetti in his starting 8 wouldn't have changed the outcome though.